Ravens vs. Dolphins odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL Thursday Night Football

When the Ravens (6-2) travel to South Florida to take on the Dolphins (2-7) to open NFL Week 10 on “Thursday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox, NFL Network, Amazon Prime Video), they will be looking to keep pushing toward the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will keep trying to march to respectability after beating the Texans last week, their first victory since Week 1.

Lamar Jackson is passing at a high level out of necessity with the Ravens’ defense struggling more than usual and the team down to a veteran street committee at running back. His No. 1 target has been big-play wide receiver Marquise Brown. Both of them hail from near Miami and destroyed the Dolphins defense for a massive game two years ago when Brown was a rookie and Jackson became a full-time starter in Year. 2.

On the flip side, Jackson’s counterpart is in doubt after Tua Tagovailoa (left finger) missed Week 9 and is a game-time decision. Jacoby Brissett might get the nod again with the tall order of trying to outduel Jackson as a runner and passer. Both defenses have been disappointing, but Miami has been much worse than Baltimore.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Ravens vs. Dolphins in Week 10, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for “Monday Night Football.”

WEEK 10 NFL PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up

Ravens vs. Dolphins odds for ‘Thursday Night Football’

The Ravens have been holding steady as more than touchdown favorites in the game and it doesn’t really matter whether it’s Tagovailoa or Brissett starting opposite Jackson, except for the point total. Baltimore is red-hot offensively after the bye while Miami was rather cool even in beating Houston last week.

(betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ravens vs. Dolphins all-time series

The Ravens have the edge 10-6 in a near full season of previous meetings. The Ravens have a three-game winning streak and romped at Miami to open Jackson’s MVP 2019 season, 59-10. They won the 2017 game 40-0 and the 2016 matchup 38-6. Baltimore dominated those contests and also taken 8 of 9, with the Dolphins last winning in 2015.

Three trends to know

—88 percent of spread bettors like the Dolphins to keep it up after beating the Texans and cover as home night underdogs.

—56 percent of over/under bettors are following the trend for both teams and going with the game falling short of the point total.

—The Ravens only 4-6 against the spread in their past 10 games including playoffs despite a 7-3 record. Only half of those games went over the point total. The Dolphins are 2-6-1 ATS and 2-8 straight up in their past 10 games. Only half those games went over the point total.

Three things to watch

Jackson in the running (and passing) for MVP again

With a lot of AFC quarterbacks battling some funks this season and only Tom Brady standing out in the NFC, Jackson’s improved wire-to-wire action has put the Ravens on his back when they have needed him most with the defense letting down. He leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, with four in six games. He probably won’t need to lead the Ravens from behind here, however.

Brissett vs. Tagovailoa in the Dolphins’ offense

Miami had designs of opening up the passing game and stretching the field better in 2021. But with Tagovailoa hurting multiple times and Brissett’s arm limitations, they have gone back to relying a lot on a high-volume short-to-intermediate attack. Both wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki have been key to that, and have good matchups here.

Le’Veon Bell comes home, too

Bell was seen hanging out in South Beach often when spending time away from the Ravens’ rival, the Steelers. He’s having fun helping Devonta Freeman in the Ravens replacement running game for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Bell could have a sneaky big impact playing closer against a run defense that ranks only No. 17 in the NFL.

Stat that matters

391.9. That’s how many average yards of total offense the Dolphins are giving up per game, ranking them No. 30 in the NFL season only ahead of the Seahawks and Jets. That’s a decent dropoff from Miami finishing No. 19 under defensive-minded coach Brian Flores last season. Baltimore’s offense has too much going for it to think the Dolphins’ defense will overachieve at home.

Ravens vs. Dolphins prediction

Jackson and Brown won’t exactly connect like they did in Week 1 of 2019, but this matchup is great for them to connect several times downfield. They also can run all over the Dolphins with Jackson leading the way as an unofficial part of the committee. The Ravens will struggle a bit with the Dolphins’ key skill players, but the homecoming game for the quarterback and wide receiver will feel like the first time.

Ravens 38, Dolphins 10

Source: Read Full Article