Raceday focus: Best bets, analysis, latest odds for Caulfield

TAB presenter Nicole Thomas previews the main feature races for day one of The Championships and gives her suggested bets.

BEST BET: Anamoe (Randwick, R6 No.1)

VALUE BET: Duais (Randwick, R4 No.5)

LAY OF THE WEEK: Art Cadeau (Randwick, R3 No.3)

AUSTRALIAN DERBY (GROUP 1, 2400M)

Randwick, R7, 3.15pm

The form out of the Rosehill Guineas is dominating the Derby market with Sky Lab and Montefilia both catching the eye.

Montefilia is the clear favourite and has been backed from $4.00 into $3.50 with Sky Lab remaining rock-solid at $5.

Lion’s Roar ($9.50) didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight following his victory in the Randwick Guineas the start prior. A drier track on Saturday won’t harm his chances.

Khoekhoe has been backed from $13 to $10 and stuck on well after racing outside the leader on a fast tempo last start.

Of the horses on the seven-day back-up, Favreau battled-on well after copping a bump approaching the 300m mark in the Tulloch Stakes, but has drifted to $14.

THE TIP: LION’S ROAR each-way

T.J. SMITH STAKES (GROUP 1, 1200M)

Randwick, R8, 3.55pm

Bivouac ($6-$5) didn’t have the cushiest of runs last start over-racing and covering ground, but still finished a close fourth. He should be back to his best here third-up after a quiet trial and offers some each-way value.

Five-time Group 1 winner Nature Strip is the danger and won this race last year. He is currently favourite at $3.80 and shortened in from $4.50 after drawing favourably.

Eduardo ($4.60-$4.80) is on the second line of betting and should make the running alongside Nature Strip. He’s aiming for a hat-trick and a second Group 1 win.

The only other runners under double figures are Haut Brion Her and Masked Crusader, both priced at $8.50.

THE TIP: BIVOUAC each-way

DONCASTER MILE (GROUP 1, 1000M)

Randwick, R9, 4.35pm

TAB made All-Star Mile winner Mugatoo ($4.50-$4.00) the outright favourite straight after the barrier draw.

It was an impressive victory in the All-Star Mile and that was also off the back of a four-week let-up.

There has been some support at double figures for Funstar ($17-$19-$16) to bounce back from the George Ryder Stakes where she was hampered at the 200m mark.

Cascadian ($17) also put in an eye-catching performance in the George Ryder, drops 6kg and looks well overdue for a Group 1 win.

Mo’unga ($7.00-$7.50) is second favourite behind Mugatoo and only carries 49.5kg.

However, getting back from the wide draw and dropping back to 1600m doesn’t appear to be in his favour.

THE TIP: MUGATOO win

Originally published asNicole’s Mailbag:

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