Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Canterbury

The Daily Telegraph’s Racing Editor Ray Thomas is confident that John O’Shea’s unbeaten colt Lost And Running can win again.

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CANTERBURY

BEST BET

Race 8, No 3: LOST AND RUNNING

Unbeaten in four starts, winning by an average margin of more than three lengths. This is his toughest test but he’s destined to win better races.

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No 8: SIEGE

Siege scored a stunning win on debit, overcoming a very wide run to score very well on debut. She’s been given plenty of time between runs and a nice trial to prepare for this. Promising Godolphin filly who can maintain the perfect start to her race career.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No 11: NICCI’S FLING

Nicci’s Fling is racing well without winning but gets her chance today. She was held up at a vital stage last start and would have made it interesting with a clear run.

QUADDIE
Race 5: 3,4,9

Race 6: 2,4,5,11

Race 7: 4,7,9,10

Race 8: 3,13

James McDonald has a terrific book of rides at Canterbury on Wednesday. Photo: Mark Evans/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

James McDonald, Sydney’s leading jockey, has a powerful book of rides including Yangtze River (race 1), Green Flash (race 3), Fashchanel (race 4), Nicci’s Fling (race 6) and Lost And Running (race 8).

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

James Cummings has good chances with Siege (race 3), Nerone (race 5) and Lackeen (race 7)

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR CANTERBURY

RACE 1

Yangtze River boasts the Hungry Heart connection as he is by superhorse Frankel, raced by Yulong and trained by Chris Waller. Yangtze River may not have his stablemate’s natural talent but he has got “something”. He ran on well for second at Kensington when resuming and is suited getting out to 1550m. Apollate finished strongly to just miss at Gosford and is an improver. Rapids had been working up to a win but disappointed last start. My Delight is a full sister to four-time Group 1 winner Criterion and can give the Waller stable the first four.

Bet: Yangtze River to win

RACE 2

Port Louis, by emerging sire and former Japanese champ Maurice, caught the eye on debut when he finished strongly on the worst part of the track for the closest of thirds at Kensington. Drawn the rails, should get the run of the race and Hugh Bowman is sticking with the colt. First starter Leen Fox showed impressive acceleration in a recent trial. Billiondollarbaby was purchased for a cool $1 million at the Easter Sale last year and the Team Snowden filly has shown ability in successive trial wins. Civil War came out of the same race as Port Louis and should have finished much closer than sixth.

Bet: Port Louis each way, box trifecta 4,9,11,13

Hugh Bowman will again partner Port Louis for trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. Photo: Mark Evans/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 3

Siege did an amazing job to travel very wide without cover before descending on her rivals to score on debut at Gosford. She’s been given six weeks to get over that run and had an easy barrier trial at Rosehill last week. Green Flash also comes off an impressive provincial debut win at Newcastle, doing his best work on the line and is a big danger to Siege. Bellevue Star has ability and gets in well with the claim, Zain’s Girl was third to Siege then scored well at the city midweeks and Onchao should sprint well fresh.

Bet: Siege to win

RACE 4

Fashchanel was never on the track at Warwick Farm when she ran last as favourite. Her two previous runs were very good, she’s had a month between runs and trialled super last week. Give her another chance. Leave Me Some has been unplaced in successive Provincial Championships heats, this is easier and can improve. Snippy Fox’s trials suggest she is ready to pick up where she left off last time in. Amercement hasn’t shown any form for ages but her recent trial at Warwick Farm where she was kept under a very tight hold was encouraging.

Bet: Fashchanel to win, saver on Amercement at odds

Trainer John O’Shea has a couple of leading chances in Fashchanel (Race 4) and Lost And Running (Race 8). Photo: Mark Evans/Getty ImagesSource:Getty Images

RACE 5

Jailbreak resumed with a tough win at Canterbury then went out to 1400m for the Country Championships heat at Coonamble and looked certain to score only to get run down late finishing third. Back to 1200m suits and he will be hard to catch. Nerone was brilliantly ridden by Hugh Bowman when weaving through the pack to win first-up at Kensington. He can make a race of it with Jailbreak. Up Trumpz ran an improved race last start and is down in the weights here. Shadow Crush is fitter now.

Bet: Jailbreak to win, watch market moves for Nerone

RACE 6

Nicci’s Fling is an underrated filly who ran competitively when fourth in Equation’s Canberra Guineas then didn’t have much luck finishing second at Kensington. She might not have beaten the winner last start but should have finished much closer. Travest is another working up to a win and getting out to 1550m is ideal. Savoury was caught in a traffic jam last start and his unplaced run should be forgotten. Foxborough is a winner this course and distance and will be running on strongly.

Bet: Nicci’s Fling each way, saver on Travest

Mr Dependable will his rivals something to chase at Canterbury. Photo: Grant GuySource:The Daily Telegraph

RACE 7

Mr Dependable led for home but tired when a first-up ninth in the Muswellbrook Cup. He’s likely to get control upfront here, his second-up record is very good and will give these something to chase. Lina’s Hero raced in a forward position and held his ground behind the in-form Yao Dash in a strong form race at Rosehill. Back to midweek grade and looks very hard to beat. Saigon should have won at Warwick Farm first-up and will be in the finish again. Luncies won four of his six starts in England, he’s had two trials since joining the Kris Lees stable and is one to watch.

Bet: Box trifecta 4,5,9,10

RACE 8

Lost And Running, unbeaten in four starts, is an excitement machine. He has good tactical speed and brilliant acceleration in the closing stages of his races. He hasn’t been seriously challenged in each of his four wins, scoring by comfortable margins, and expect the same result here. Switched is a very game mare but she is up against a very promising sprinter. Adelong didn’t come up last campaign but her recent trial was good. Mr Mosaic won well first-up and is well weighted after the claim.

Bet: Lost And Running to win

Originally published asCanterbury tips: Running to keep his winning streak

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